比亚迪业绩炸了，压力给到特斯拉 BYD's performance has exploded, putting pressure on Tesla

来源：华尔街见闻

新能源汽车的价格战仍在上演，但比亚迪顶住了压力，昨日发布的业绩预告显示，比亚迪净利润猛增，单季利润有望突破百亿大关。

现在压力给到特斯拉，今年多次打响“降价促销”策略以捍卫市场地位的特斯拉将在今日美股盘后公布三季报。

在竞争对手的“步步紧逼”下，特斯拉在今年三季度不断尝试“以价换量”来保持领先地位，但需求疲软与利润挤压，或许会让特斯拉的三季报不容乐观。

当前，华尔街分析师关注焦点为：特斯拉接连降价后的毛利率水平、对未来的交付预测、CyberTruck何时会来以及如何降低成本。

焦点1:毛利率会继续下滑吗

比亚迪给特斯拉造成的焦虑不仅仅是在汽车销量方面，毛利率也成了特斯拉不得不时刻关注的焦点，比亚迪的汽车毛利率已经超越20%而特斯拉的毛利率却在不断下滑。

知名科技分析师、深水资产管理公司执行合伙人Gene Munster直言，特斯拉三季度财报“都是关于毛利率的”。

此前财报数据显示，特斯拉Q1毛利率为19.3%，低于去年Q4的23.8%，Q2进一步降至18.2%。

而特斯拉在三季度宣布的又一次降价引发了投资者对其利润率的担忧。华尔街投行普遍认为特斯拉Q3毛利率约18.2%，但摩根士丹利股票分析师Adam Jonas认为，特斯拉Q3毛利率可能会进一步降至17.5%。

富国银行分析师Colin Langan的看法则更为悲观，预计为16% 左右。这些数字均低于特斯拉之前将汽车毛利率保持在20%以上的目标。

焦点二：交付指引会变吗？

特斯拉此前公布的最新交付数据显示，今年第三季度全球累计生产43.05万辆，同比增长18%，低于市场预估的46万辆。同期，全球累计交付43.5万辆，同比增长27%，环比下滑6.7%，依旧低于市场预估的45.6万辆。

10月5日晚，特斯拉下调Model 3和Model Y车型在美国的售价。对于特斯拉发布销售数据后马上降价，有华尔街分析师认为这反映了特斯拉销售不景气可能并非工厂原因导致，而是因为需求不振。

但在特斯拉公布第三季度产销数据之后，再次重申了2023年的全年新车交付目标维持在180万辆不变。

因此，此次财报的重点将不再是第三季度，而是对今年第四季度、2024年的销量预期以及CyberTrunk 会在多大程度上提振销量。

长期看好特斯拉的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives写道，华尔街将“高度关注第四季度的利润率表现和整体前景”。

Ives认为，尽管特斯拉第三季度的交付量低于预期，令投资者失望，而第三季度会是特斯拉的低谷期，第四季度和2024年的“前景会更好”。

加拿大皇家银行分析师在报告中指出，特斯拉正接近一个战略支点，要实现2023年180万辆汽车的交付目标，就必须在第四季度交付47.6万辆汽车。而三季度销量低于预期或许会让其重新审视四季度的交付目标。

高盛认为，新车型会在多大程度上刺激2023年第四季度和2024年的销量增长成为了焦点：

数据显示，第四季度的共识值为49.9万辆，2024年全年为235.8万辆。我们预计第四季度将增至49.4万辆，2024年将增至227.5万辆。

焦点三：Cybertruck和Dojo项目能否能推动增长

特斯拉将Cybertruck和人工智能开发项目（即Dojo项目）被视为推动特斯拉未来增长的关键领域。

今年4月，马斯克就曾表示，Dojo的潜力非常巨大，最终，特斯拉可能会像亚马逊云服务那样，利用Dojo向其他公司销售云服务。

对于Cybertruck，马斯克今年春季曾表示，Cybertruck将于今年第三季度交付。然而事与愿违，如今已到10月底，消费者的期待再次落空。对此Ives认为，Cybertruck将在“11月-12 月”左右开始向客户推出，他此前预计Cybertruck的发布时间为万圣节，且将给特斯拉未来的销量以提振。

但也有分析师认为，Cybertruck的交付量难以很快提升，毕竟这部车的制造较为复杂，预计产能爬坡较慢。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street News

The price war for new energy vehicles is still going on, but BYD has withstood the pressure. The performance forecast released yesterday shows that BYD's net profit has soared, and the profit for a single quarter is expected to break through the 10 billion mark.

Now the pressure is on Tesla. Tesla, which has launched a “price reduction promotion” strategy several times this year to defend its market position, will publish its three-quarter report after today's US stock market.

Under the “tight pressure” of competitors, Tesla continued to try “price for volume” to maintain its leading position in the third quarter of this year, but weak demand and squeezed profits may not make Tesla's third-quarter report optimistic.

Currently, Wall Street analysts are focusing on: Tesla's gross margin level after successive price cuts, future delivery predictions, when CyberTruck will arrive, and how to reduce costs.

Focus 1: Will gross margin continue to decline

The anxiety that BYD has caused Tesla is not only in terms of car sales; gross margin has also become the focus of Tesla's constant attention. BYD's gross automobile margin has already exceeded 20%, yet Tesla's gross margin continues to decline.

Gene Munster, a well-known technology analyst and executive partner of Deepwater Asset Management, said bluntly that Tesla's financial reports for the third quarter “are all about gross margin.”

According to previous financial data, Tesla's gross margin in Q1 was 19.3%, down from 23.8% in Q4 last year, and fell further to 18.2% in Q2.

Yet another price cut announced by Tesla in the third quarter raised investors' concerns about its profit margins. Wall Street investment banks generally believe Tesla's Q3 gross margin is about 18.2%, but Morgan Stanley stock analyst Adam Jonas believes that Tesla's Q3 gross margin may drop further to 17.5%.

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan's opinion is more pessimistic, and is expected to be around 16%. These numbers all fall short of Tesla's previous goal of keeping gross vehicle margins above 20%.

Focus 2: Will delivery guidelines change?

According to the latest delivery data previously released by Tesla, a total of 4305,000 vehicles were produced globally in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 18% over the previous year.460,000 vehicles lower than market estimates. In the same period, 435,000 vehicles were delivered globally, up 27% year on year, down 6.7% month on month, and still below market estimates of 456,000 vehicles.

On the evening of October 5, Tesla lowered the prices of Model 3 and Model Y models in the US. As for Tesla's price reduction immediately after the sales data was released, some Wall Street analysts think this reflects that Tesla's slump in sales may not be due to factory reasons.It's because demand is weak.

However, after Tesla released production and sales data for the third quarter,It was reaffirmed once again that the annual new vehicle delivery target for 2023 will remain unchanged at 1.8 million vehicles.

Therefore, the focus of this financial report will no longer be on the third quarter, but on sales expectations for the fourth quarter of this year, 2024, and the extent to which CyberTrunk will boost sales.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has been optimistic about Tesla for a long time, wrote that Wall Street will “pay close attention to profit margin performance and overall prospects in the fourth quarter.”

Ives believes that although Tesla's deliveries in the third quarter fell short of expectations and disappointed investors, while the third quarter will be a low point for Tesla, the “prospects will be better” for the fourth quarter and 2024.

Royal Bank of Canada analysts pointed out in the report that Tesla is approaching a strategic fulcrum. To achieve the delivery target of 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, 476,000 vehicles must be delivered in the fourth quarter.However, lower than expected sales in the third quarter may cause it to reconsider its delivery target for the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs believes the extent to which the new model will stimulate sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024 is the focus:

According to the data, the consensus value for the fourth quarter was 499,000 vehicles, and 2.358 million vehicles for the full year of 2024. We expect this to increase to 494,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter and 2.275,000 vehicles in 2024.

Focus 3:Can Cybertruck and Dojo projects drive growth

Tesla sees Cybertruck and artificial intelligence development projects (or Dojo projects) as key areas that will drive Tesla's future growth.

In April of this year, Musk said that Dojo's potential is huge. Ultimately, Tesla may use Dojo to sell cloud services to other companies, just like Amazon Cloud Services.

Regarding Cybertruck, Musk said in the spring of this year that Cybertruck will be delivered in the third quarter of this year. However, it backfired. Now that it's the end of October, consumer expectations have once again come to nothing. In response, Ives believes that Cybertruck will begin to be launched to customers around “November-December.” He had previously anticipated that Cybertruck will be released on Halloween, and that it will boost Tesla's future sales.

However, some analysts believe that it will be difficult to increase the delivery volume of Cybertruck quickly. After all, the manufacture of this car is complicated, and production capacity is expected to rise slowly.

Editor/jayden